This table illustrates three significant points about Natural
Gas price movement characteristics:
- Impulsive swings tend to be longer than the overall average
- Corrective swings tend to be shorter than the overall average
- At the present time, as depicted in the current primary swing chart,
Natural Gas swings are:
- The Major level swing appears to be in an up swing. The critical
issue is whether this up swing will be an impulsive or a corrective
- At the risk of being premature, the Intermediate level swing appears to be in a corrective down swing. The alternate view presently shows the same.
- The Minor level swing appears to be in an impulsive down swing within the context of the Intermediate corrective level down swing. The alternate view presently shows the same.
- The Minute level swing appears to be nearing the end of a
corrective up swing and beginning the last impulsive down swing
within the context of the Intermediate level corrective down swing.
The alternate view presently
shows the same.
However, because of space, this table does not illustrate several
other equally significant aspects of Natural Gas price movement
behavior which are useful in establishing price, time, and speed
forecasts for the current swings depicted in the current swing chart:
- Impulsive swings that occur within the context of an impulsive
swing at the next higher swing level tend to be longer and, on
many occasions, exhibit faster speeds than impulsive swings that
occur within the context of a corrective swing at the next higher
- An impulsive swing can be the only swing within the next higher
swing level or it can be the first, middle, or last swing. Each
type of impulsive swing tends to exhibit its own unique price
movement characteristics (price range, time, and speed).
- The price range, time, and speed of the previous swings are
known. We also know the historical price range, time and speed
ratios for each historical swing relative to its previous opposite
swing and previous similar swing. Given these two known elements,
we can forecast the price range, time and speed of the current
swing for each level.
Swing Point Characteristics
Given that we appear to have achieved a High Swing Point (HSP)
window for the Major swing level, over the next week we will be
filling in the following sections to describe the characteristics
that tend to accompany Major level down swings:
See Current Primary Swing chart and Current Alternate Swing chart.
See Current Primary Swing chart and Current Alternate Swing
Commitment Of Traders Reports
Reaction to Surprises
Surprises tend to move prices in the direction of the underlying
bias (i.e. the direction of the Major level swing):
Additionally, when surprises do occur and prices do not move impulsively
in the direction of the perceived underlying bias, the perceived
underlying bias is probably wrong and/or the underlying bias is
Suitable Strategies & Tactics
Pages are being developed that incorporate the application of
the foregoing to the unique characteristics of natural gas producers,
end-users, marketers, traders, and speculators. Please review,
even as the pages are being developed. Your feedback would be
helpful in shaping the form and substance of the pages.
To aid in utilizing the foregoing, you will find a written description
of Profiling Swing Characteristics
in the Analytic Framework page.
Please feel free to email
me or utilize the comments button
to initiate a dialog regarding the foregoing comments and issues
related to the Intermediate, Minor, and Minute level swing price,
time, and speed forecasts.